Football betting is a multi-billion-dollar industry, attracting millions of bettors worldwide who are constantly seeking an edge. For those looking to go beyond the basics of predicting match outcomes, advanced strategies offer a deeper, more analytical approach. Here we will explore several advanced football betting strategies that you can later apply at the 1xBet website.
For starters, one of the most powerful tools in advanced football betting is the Expected Goals (xG) model. xG is a metric that evaluates the quality of chances created by teams during a match. It assigns a value between 0 and 1 to each scoring opportunity based on factors like:
- shot angle;
- distance from the goal;
- and the type of assist.
For instance, a close-range shot from the center of the box has a higher xG (e.g., 0.5) than a long-range effort (e.g., 0.05). The process of calculating the actual xG number can be quite complex. However, in simple terms, its numbers are mostly derived from historical data that comes from analyzing thousands of past matches. In them, the probability of scoring goals from different situations is calculated, and that's basically how to calculate xG in a nutshell. The good thing is that you don't need to calculate this yourself, as this data is readily available too.
By analyzing xG data, bettors can gain insights into the performance of teams beyond the final scoreline. For example, a team may have won a match 1-0, but if their xG was only 0.3 compared to their opponent's 1.8, it suggests they were fortunate to win.
Over time, teams that consistently outperform their xG are likely to regress to the mean, making them potential candidates for future losses. Conversely, teams underperforming their xG could be undervalued in the market. It is a good idea to also take this into consideration if performing bets on the football section of the 1xBet platform.
Applying handicaps
Asian Handicap (AH) betting is a popular strategy that levels the playing field by giving one team a goal handicap. This method eliminates the draw outcome, reducing the match to two possible results: win or loss. The handicap can be a whole number (e.g., -1, +1) or a half/quarter number (e.g., -0.5, +0.75).
Advanced bettors use Asian Handicap markets to exploit perceived mispricings. For example, suppose Team A, a strong favorite, is given an AH of -1.5 against Team B. If you believe Team A will win by at least two goals, betting on the -1.5 handicap provides better odds than a simple win bet. Conversely, if you think Team B can keep the match close, backing them with a +1.5 handicap may offer value.
In the 2021/22 Premier League season, using Asian Handicap betting would have been particularly effective for teams like Manchester City. City had an average winning margin of 2.06 goals in their victories. Betting on Manchester City with a -1.5 handicap in most of their matches would have yielded a higher return than traditional win-draw-win betting.
ortant aspect that you may want to take into consideration is value betting. This involves identifying bets where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the event occurring. To find value bets, bettors need to calculate their own probabilities for match outcomes using statistical models, team news, and other relevant data. If a bettor believes there is a 60% chance of a team winning and the bookmaker's odds imply only a 50% chance, this represents a value bet.
Wrapping up, advanced football betting strategies like Expected Goals Analysis, Asian Handicap betting, and Value Betting require a more analytical and disciplined approach than casual betting. By understanding and applying these strategies, bettors can improve their decision-making process and potentially increase their profitability. However, it's crucial to remember that no strategy guarantees success, and football betting should always be approached responsibly.
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