Standard Chartered: "UAE Business Activity to Accelerate in Q3 2026"

Latest economic analysis highlights continued non-oil expansion, supported by domestic consumption, investment and improving regional trade flows

06 July 2026 – Dubai United Arab Emirates: Standard Chartered global research today announced its latest economic analysis, forecasting stronger momentum in UAE business activity during the third quarter of 2026, as regional tensions ease and attention shifts to the speed and scale of the GCC's economic recovery.

The Bank's analysis indicates that the UAE's June S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained above the 50 threshold, signalling continued expansion in non-oil activity even during the kinetic phase of the recent regional conflict. Positive non-oil growth appears to be driven by domestic consumption and investment, while the external sector is expected to gradually recover as regional trade flows normalise.

Rola Abu Manneh, Chief Executive Officer, UAE, Middle East and Pakistan, Standard Chartered, said: "The UAE's latest PMI reading reinforces the resilience of its non-oil economy and private sector activity through a period of regional uncertainty. Domestic consumption and investment continue to support growth, while the gradual recovery in external demand provides a more constructive outlook for the third quarter. These trends reflect the depth of the UAE's economic fundamentals and its continued role as a leading hub for trade, investment and capital flows."

Standard Chartered expects three drivers to support the strong momentum in the third quarter: softer oil prices, a recovery in the job market, and an acceleration in investment growth as governments in the region continue to focus on maintaining the diversification of trade corridors.

The Bank's analysis also highlights that the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the prior rerouting of oil exports have already translated into a near full recovery in the UAE's oil exports, while regional oil exports are recovering at a more gradual pace.