Middle East Disruption Impacts Cargo Markets, Demand Falls 4.8% in March

29 April 2026 (Geneva) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2026 global air cargo markets showing:

• Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels (-5.5% for international operations).
• Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025 (-6.8% for international operations).

"Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline. The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry's resilience in the coming months," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

• Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion. The global goods trade rose by 8.0% year-on-year in February.
• Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, up 106.6% year-on-year, alongside a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins.
• Global manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory in March, easing slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was 50.1—both above the 50-point expansion threshold—signaling positive conditions for air cargo demand.

March Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 5.4% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in March. Capacity increased by 5.0% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a 1.2% year-on-year decrease in air cargo demand in March. Capacity decreased by 1.1% year-on-year.

European carriers saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 4.2% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 54.3% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity decreased by 52.4% year-on-year.

Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 1.8% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 5.1% year-on-year.

African airlines saw a 7.0% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March, the strongest rise of all regions. Capacity decreased by 4.6% year-on-year.

Trade Lane Growth 

Air cargo performance diverged across major trade lanes in March. Africa-Asia led growth followed by Asia–Europe, with intra-Asia also holding strong on regional trade. In contrast, Gulf-linked corridors were severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.