Dubai, Feb 18, 2026: Dubai based investment banking advisory firm, Alpen Capital, released its first-ever GCC Real Estate Industry Report, outlining prospects for what has become one of the most appealing investment categories in the region over the past decade. Alpen Capital's report points to continued steady growth, as both supply and demand factors mature supported by ambitious economic diversification agendas, sustained foreign investment, and supportive regulatory reforms across the region.
In addition to presenting a supply side outlook, the report evaluates the current market landscape and provides a comprehensive assessment of the GCC real estate industry covering the residential, commercial, hospitality, and retail segments. Furthermore, it features profiles of select regional real estate developers and operators.
“The real estate landscape of the GCC has undergone significant transformation driven by national agendas to diversify and build a resilient economy. Dubai has led this transformation, establishing itself as a global metropolis fueled by foreign ownership, massive infrastructure investments and ambitious strategies. Over the next few years, the region's real estate industry is expected to witness a steady supply across the residential, commercial, hospitality and retail segments, largely supported by continued government spending and investments in building a world-class infrastructure. Moreover, a conducive regulatory environment, high per capita incomes and strong demographic fundamentals will further support the advancement of the GCC's real estate industry”, said Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director, Alpen Capital.
“Over the coming years, we expect supply–demand dynamics across the GCC to become more balanced. Large-scale developments are being phased more strategically, with a clear emphasis on quality, mixed-use formats, and demand-led execution. We are witnessing that development trends are shifting towards master-planned, sustainable, and technology-enabled communities focused on long-term liveability. While certain sub-markets may experience short-term oversupply pressures, well-located and high-quality projects are likely to continue seeing strong absorption and pricing support. Going forward, as major development zones reach operational maturity, investors will have a broad base of high-quality assets maintaining interest from both regional and international buyers”, said Sharmin Karanjia, Executive Director, Alpen Capital.
As per Alpen Capital, the GCC real estate market is expected to experience a more disciplined phase of expansion, with supply growth increasingly planned and aligned with demand. High disposable incomes, steady population growth, expatriate inflows, and a favourable tax environment remain key demand drivers across the region. The report highlights that future development pipelines will feature mixed-use projects, enhanced asset quality, sustainability, and the integration of residential, commercial and lifestyle components. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to account for majority of the upcoming supply, while other GCC markets pursue more targeted and selective growth strategies.
Residential Segment
Based on the current project announcements, regional residential supply is expected to increase from approximately 6.26 million units in 2025 to 7.28 million units by 2030, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE accounting for the bulk of the supply. Saudi Arabia's residential supply is estimated to grow by 499,000 units between 2025 – 2030, reaching 3.45 million by 2030. This growth will primarily be led by giga projects and master planned communities in Riyadh and Jeddah. During the same period, UAE's
residential stock is projected to increase by 390,000 units and reach 1.51 million units by 2030, with new additions focused on apartment-led mixed-use developments in Dubai alongside premium villas and waterfront communities in Abu Dhabi.
Commercial Segment
Office supply across the GCC is estimated to expand from 33.3 million sqm in 2025 to 42.4 million sqm by 2030, with over 65 percent of new supply delivered in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as per the existing pipeline. In Saudi Arabia, commercial supply is expected to increase substantially from 7.0 million sqm to 13.2 million sqm during the forecast period. Additions will be concentrated in Riyadh with developments such as New Murabba and KAFD, alongside selective supply in Jeddah through projects such as the Jeddah Gate. In the UAE, office stock is likely to expand moderately by 910,000 sqm over the same period, with a focus on premium, sustainable, and lifestyle focused office districts, while other GCC markets add supply at a controlled pace through smart and mixed-use business hubs.
Hospitality Segment
With respect to the hospitality segment, total hotel room supply is anticipated to increase from 345,400 rooms in 2025 to 409,900 rooms by 2030, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the fastest-growing market. This growth is expected to be driven by rising international arrivals, expanded aviation capacity, mega events and destination-led developments. Overall, the sector is demonstrating a shift towards more stable, yield-generating formats, marked by better occupancy, higher room rates, and the expansion of serviced apartments.
Retail Segment
GCC's retail gross leasable area (GLA) is expected to expand from 22.8 million sqm in 2025 to 27.2 million sqm by 2030, transitioning towards experience-led and quality-driven advancements. Across the region, developers and landlords are prioritizing entertainment, dining, and lifestyle concepts to boost footfall and counter e-commerce pressures. Growth is expected to be led by flagship malls and mixed-
use destinations, especially in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while secondary assets could face increasing pressure to reposition.
Growth across the GCC real estate sector is expected to be supported by the governments' agenda to position property development as a strategic pillar of non-oil growth. Consistent rise in the expatriate population and influx of high-net-worth individuals, especially post-pandemic, are facilitating the flow of FDIs, driving demand for large-scale development. Favourable returns accompanied with supportive regulatory reforms continue to enhance investor confidence and market transparency within the industry. Additionally, significant infrastructure investment in transport, logistics, and urban systems is unlocking new development corridors and improving the viability of real estate assets across segments.
However, ongoing challenges such as high dependence on public spending and government-led mega-projects make supply pipelines sensitive to oil price movements, fiscal cycles and global uncertainties. Furthermore, higher financing costs due to elevated interest rates, could affect project feasibility and encourage phased execution strategies. There could be pressure on prices and rents in the foreseeable future due to localized oversupply in certain markets. In recent years, the sector has also been experiencing a rise in insurance costs as climate related risks have increased.
Several trends are shaping the region's real estate industry including sustainability requirements, which are becoming a standard across the GCC. Green finance is also gaining momentum, as developers and investors increasingly access capital through green bonds, sukuks, and sustainability-linked financing structures. Moreover, market activity is showing a clear flight to quality, with demand concentrating around premium assets that offer strong connectivity and ESG credentials. Digital transformation through PropTech and the roll-out of property tokenization frameworks are also enhancing market transparency and access.
Overall, investment activity across the GCC remains robust yet selective, with capital increasingly directed toward master-planned communities, destination-led projects, and completed income-generating assets aligned with region's long-term urban development strategies.
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