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- Growth rather than consolidation is expected to be a dominant driver of activity
Dubai 13 July 2014: According to EY's Power Transactions and Trends report, the increasing role of the private sector in both power generation and water could boost opportunities for large-scale transactions in MENA in the future. With market reform in the region gaining momentum as well as utility unbundling, renewables looks to be a fertile growth area.
“At present, utilities in the Gulf are focusing chiefly on domestic investment. There is a massive need for new power and water capacity, driven by population growth and the increased industrialization of the region's economies. The projections for new capacity over the next few years encompass not just generation but basic infrastructure. This demand will open up substantial opportunity for private sector involvement and transactions,” says David Lloyd, MENA Power & Utilities Transactions Leader, EY.
Transaction activity in the GCC is largely based on participation of the private sector in capital projects and commercial undertakings. As markets and competition in power generation becomes more established, growth rather than consolidation is expected to be a dominant driver of activity, and more deals to be done between state-owned businesses and the private sector.
Some appetite for outbound investment remains
Despite the focus on growth, oil and gas deals are still being completed between both companies already based in the Gulf and between international players. In (January 2013) Saudi Arabian public pension agency picked up 19.4% of ACWA Power, an independent Saudi power company with a mixture of public and private shareholders. A similar deal was the acquisition of Amendis and Redal, providers of water, wastewater and electricity services, by the UK's Actis Capital LLP from Veolia Services à l'Environnement Maroc SA17 for an estimated US$481.4m, in a leveraged buyout transaction.
A number of Middle East funds are also planning to diversify their investments and acquire assets across the globe. For example, Kuwait and Qatar's sovereign wealth funds were eyeing the UK utility sector in 2013. Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power has recently started to internationalize and Masdar Capital (Abu Dhabi quasi-sovereign) is already the owner of several large-scale renewable assets internationally.
Several other utilities in the Gulf, particularly in Qatar, are known to be interested in establishing independent power plant (IPP) type companies which can compete in international markets for new projects using their substantial capital base and their deep experience of the IPP model. This could have the impact of increasing competition for regulated and renewable assets in Europe.
Future in renewable energy transactions
Substantial (and largely inbound) transaction activity is expected in renewables - mainly solar and wind. Several substantial renewable energy programs are in the future pipeline, covering all of the Gulf countries. As this market takes off, extensive use of IPPs is expected, with foreign private sector capital coming in to fund, build and operate renewable energy plants.
“The hydrocarbon-rich countries of the Gulf recognize that their resources and capital may not be limitless, given the massive investment needed in generation and subsidies. There's definite interest in switching fuel sources and raising capital from the private sector around the IPP model,” says Christian von Tschirschky, MENA Power & Utilities Leader, EY.
In particular, significant transaction activity based on joint ventures between international and domestic companies is expected, with the international companies contributing their renewables expertise and local partners drawing on their local knowledge of land, regulation, environmental issues and power off-take permitting.
“The Middle East continues to be one of the world's biggest markets for IPPs, and a number of global independent power companies are active in the region and continually looking at
new projects. Institutional investors might consider ways to play in this developing renewable energy market, which will attract companies of all sizes and have significant funding requirements and long-term off-take profiles. However, given how Middle East markets are structured, this is probably more of a long-term play,” concludes Christian.
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