Dubai, UAE, December 09, 2018: S&P Global Ratings believes the recent surge in economic damage from extreme climatic events may focus the attention of public authorities about the need for adaptation investments and accelerate investment in this area.
The United Nations Environment Program forecasts adaptation costs in developing countries at between $140 billion and $300 billion by 2030, and $280 billion and $500 billion by 2050. That is approximately 6x-13x above the amount of international public-sector finance available today--just to meet 2030 costs.
In a report published today, 'Plugging The Climate Adaptation Gap With High Resilience Benefit Investments,' we explore how investments with a strong 'resilience benefit'--offering cost-effective protection against extreme weather damage--could attract private investors interesting in resilience as well as an attractive risk-return profile.
'Over the last two years, the world has seen a flurry of extreme weather, which has exposed the vulnerability of many countries to these events,' said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Miroslav Petkov. 'Climate change may make matters worse, irrespective of whether we manage to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or not. Attention to climate change adaptation is therefore increasing, especially about how to finance it, given the need to raise enough public and private investment to fortify exposed countries and communities against the potentially devastating effects of physical climate risk.'
'We expect that due to the large size of the adaptation gap and constrained public finances, private investment would need to make a considerable contribution to adaptation financing,' said Mr. Petkov.
The successful adoption of new financial instruments that introduce a strong link between investment returns and resilience benefits could further help uptake in adaptation investments. There are various ways to assess resilience benefits, including one S&P Global Ratings have developed as part of its Green Evaluation methodology. In a companion report, also published today, 'Determining The Resilience Benefit Of Climate Adaptation Financing,' we outline how we assesses the resilience benefit of investments in climate adaptation projects using the Green Evaluation approach.