GoDubai
  
  
  
  
Citylife > Press Release
  Home Contact us Add to Favourites
Most Recent Postings
More Press Releses
Featured Sections

Event Finder
A daily roundup of exhibitions, promotions and other events in Dubai and the rest of the Emirates.
Submit an Event
Latest Dubai Press Releases >> Travel, Tourism and Hotels

 
  Share
- Read Alexandre de Juniac's remarks
- View the COVID-19 'Can costs be downsized to make the industry cash positive' presentation (PDF)
 
United Arab Emirates -  October 28, 2020:     The International Air Transport Association (IATA) presented new analysis showing that the airline industry cannot slash costs sufficiently to neutralize severe cash burn to avoid bankruptcies and preserve jobs in 2021. IATA reiterated its call for government relief measures to sustain airlines financially and avoid massive employment terminations. IATA also called for pre-flight COVID-19 testing to open borders and enable travel without quarantine.
 
Total industry revenues in 2021 are expected to be down 46% compared to the 2019 figure of $838 billion. The previous analysis was for 2021 revenues to be down around 29% compared to 2019. This was based on expectations for a demand recovery commencing in the fourth quarter of 2020. Recovery has been delayed however, owing to new COVID-19 outbreaks, and government mandated travel restrictions including border closings and quarantine measures. IATA expects full year 2020 traffic to be down 66% compared to 2019, with December demand down 68%. 
 
“The fourth quarter of 2020 will be extremely difficult and there is little indication the first half of 2021 will be significantly better, so long as borders remain closed and/or arrival quarantines remain in place. Without additional government financial relief, the median airline has just 8.5 months of cash remaining at current burn rates. And we can't cut costs fast enough to catch up with shrunken revenues,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO. 
Although airlines have taken drastic steps to reduce costs, around 50% of airlines' costs are fixed or semi-fixed, at least in the short-term. The result is that costs have not fallen as fast as revenues. For example, the year-on-year decline in operating costs for the second quarter was 48% compared with a 73% decline in operating revenues, based on a sample of 76 airlines. 
 
Furthermore, as airlines have reduced capacity (available seat kilometers, or ASKs) in response to the collapse in travel demand, unit costs (cost per ASK, or CASK) have risen, since there are fewer seat kilometers to ‘spread' costs over. Preliminary results for the third quarter show that unit costs rose around 40% compared to the year-ago period. 
 
Looking forward to 2021, IATA estimates that to achieve a breakeven operating result and neutralize cash burn, unit costs will need to fall by 30% compared to average CASK for 2020. Such a decline is without precedent.
Factors contributing to this analysis include:
• With international demand down nearly 90%, airlines have parked thousands of mostly long-haul aircraft and shifted their operations to short haul flying where possible. However, because the average distance flown has fallen sharply, more aircraft are required to operate the network. Thus, flown capacity (ASKs) is down 62% compared to January 2019, but the in-service fleet is down just 21%. 
• Around 60% of the world aircraft fleet is leased. While airlines have received some reductions from lessors, aircraft rental costs have dropped less than 10% over the past year.
• It is critical that airports and air navigation service providers avoid cost increases to fill gaps in budgets that are dependent on pre-crisis traffic levels. Infrastructure costs have fallen sharply because of fewer flights and passengers. Infrastructure providers could cut costs, defer capital expenditures, borrow on capital markets to cover losses or seek government financial relief. 
• Fuel is the only bright spot with prices down 42% on 2019. Unfortunately, they are expected to rise next year as increased economic activity raises energy demand.
• While IATA is not advocating specific workforce reductions, maintaining last year's level of labor productivity (ASKs/employee), would require employment to be cut 40%. Further jobs losses or pay cuts would be required to bring unit labour costs down to the lowest point of recent years, a reduction of 52% from 2020 Q3 levels.
• Even if that unprecedented reduction in labor costs were to be achieved, total costs will still be higher than revenues in 2021, and airlines will continue to burn through cash.
“There is little good news on the cost front in 2021. Even if we maximize our cost cutting, we still won't have a financially sustainable industry in 2021,” said de Juniac.
“The handwriting is on the wall. For each day that the crisis continues, the potential for job losses and economic devastation grows. Unless governments act fast, some 1.3 million airline jobs are at risk. And that would have a domino effect putting 3.5 million additional jobs in the aviation sector in jeopardy along with a total of 46 million people in the broader economy whose jobs are supported by aviation. Moreover, the loss of aviation connectivity will have a dramatic impact on global GDP, threatening $1.8 trillion in economic activity. Governments must take firm action to avert this impending economic and labor catastrophe. They must step forward with additional financial relief measures. And they must use systematic COVID-19 testing to safely re-open borders without quarantine,” said de Juniac.



Posted by : GoDubai Editorial Team
Viewed 1837 times
Posted on : Wednesday, October 28, 2020  
Replication or redistribution in whole or in part is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of GoDubai.com.
Previous Story : WMO and IATA Agree to Improve Aircraft Meteorological Reporting
Next Story : VFS Global Offers International Travel Insurance with Covid-19 Coverage
Email this article Print this article

Share this article with your friends and followers
NewsVine

Comments

Back to Top  
Most Viewed Press Release posted in the last 7 days
Lockdown Showdown: Jaguar I-pace Etrophy Series to Get Back on Track in Berlin i...
Three Eggs get Yemeni National a Guinness World Records Title
Omega's Antimagnetic Tourbillon Is a Watchmaking Breakthrough
Lamborghini SCV12: Squadra Corse Hypercar Ready to Hit the Track
The new BMW M5 and BMW M5 Competition
Toric Tourbillon Slate
GROHE Smart Control Review
Twitter tests Tweeting with Voice
Saxo Bank Launches Loyalty Program for MENA Region Clients
Hyundai Motor and Sony Pictures Entertainment Announce Unique and Pioneering Mul...
American Aesthetic Medical Center Has Something in Store for the Esthetical Figu...
WTTC Launches Safe Travels Protocols for Attractions, Car Hire and Short-Term Rental
NUDESTIX Launches - Nudies Blush, Bronze, and Glow Shade Extension
Volvo Cars Chengdu Car Plant Powered by 100 Per Cent Renewable Electricity
Range Rover Marks 50 Years of All-terrain Innovation and Luxury With Exclusive N...
Under-12 and Over-60 Can Now Take Part in Sports Activities: Dubai Sports Council
Dabur Ensures Safety with Hand Sanitizers and Personal Protection Kits as UAE Es...
Let's Brigthen Up! The Face Shop's Ultimate Summer Skincare Range From Belif is Here!
Handy Helper for Content Creators: The Compact A6100 Mirrorless Camera from Sony...
Pre-orders for Samsung's Galaxy S20+ 5G and Galaxy Buds+ BTS Edition now open in...
Experts Highlight need for Young Talent to Develop Skills for a Post-Covid-19 World
Dabur Launches Pure Organic Coconut Oil: Natural Protection for Hair, Skin, and ...
GEMS Wellington Academy – Al Khail Improves Rating to 'Very Good' in KHDA DSIB 2...
Etihad Airways to Recommence Flights to Athens
Dubai Sees Pronounced Uptick in Demand for Retail Units
Book Building of Amlak International's IPO of 30% of Shares
Sanctuary for the Senses: All-New Lincoln Corsair Arrives with Whisper-Quiet, Co...
Essence Spring/Summer 2020 Collection
Registration Opens for Training On the Camel Trek and Camel Marathon for Expats
Covid-19 Leads UAE Businesses to Adopt Upgraded Green Building Solutions
Dubai Sports Council Discuss Upcoming Sports Events With Federations and Organisers
Dubai Sports Council to Celebrate Dubai's COVID-19 Heroes Through Commemorative ...
Turkish Airlines Was the Busiest Operator in the Eurocontrol Area After Restarti...
Celebrate Father's Day With Parmigiani Fleurier Tondagraph Slate'
INFINITI of Arabian Automobiles presents Dubai Islamic Bank customers Super Sale...
Crude Oil Headwinds on Virus and Technicals
Customers can Benefit from Increasing Gold Rate by just Paying 10% Advance at Ma...
Canadian University Dubai Receives Prestigious Certification in Education for Pu...
Report Reveals the Six Fintech Innovations That Will Boost the ‘Financial Health...
Serco Middle East Appoints New Managing Director for Dubai Metro and Dubai Tram
Big Bang Integral King Gold
Pan Emirates Unveils Exclusive New Collection
Digital Vision Technology Signals On-Track Success for Panasonic Jaguar Racing
Schneider Electric Extends Strategic Partnerships with AVEVA, Lenovo and Stratus...
Celebrate World Music Day with HONOR Magic Earbuds
The 11th Edition of the Arab Fashion Week to Launch Virtually Today, from June 2...
New Bentayga to Launch Beyond100
Cairo Amman Bank Adopts the Latest Technology to Enhance Performance and Securit...
Celebrate Summer Safely with the New, Shopping Normal at BurJuman
Registration open for Dubai Watersports Summer Week